The world stands on the brink of a computing revolution, a revolution set to redefine how we decode secrets, measure complexity, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, and since this is supposed to be a commentary on the market today also to navigate the intricate landscape of finance. Quantum Computing.
Richard Feynman, a pioneer in this peculiar and mysterious field, aptly described it as the “rules that describe how really small things behave.” As quantum science continues to surprise even the most seasoned experts, its potential applications, particularly in computing, are sending ripples across more than a dozen countries. Most recently is the narrative on the US-China race to achieve quantum computing for codebreaking, which is eerily similar to the plot of Sneakers – a 1992 heist film focused on a “black box” capable of decrypting anything, thus portraying that there was a race for the black box against the Russians.
As fantastical as that sounded in the 1990s, cyber security experts of today recognize quantum computing as a legitimate threat akin to the black box in that movie, not only to US’s secrets but everybody’s. Quantum computers are poised to break encryption codes in mere minutes, a feat that would take current computers thousands of years. In response to this threat US has been making a push with respect to post quantum cryptography (PQC) to help protect its secrets while China has made advancements towards launching a quantum communications network. Now as interesting as espionage is, another contribution of quantum computing I want to tackle is its potential contribution to the term “complex”.
If breaking encryption code that could take thousands of years can be done in minutes, whatever it is that we define as too complex to understand now may be within reach in the near future. Consulting groups like BCG are already predicting that quantum computing will generate $850 Billion in income by 2035 and that early-stage machines can generate real business value by 2025. Coupled with the recent advancements in generative AI and DeepSouth (a neuromorphic supercomputer coming online in 2024), I don’t doubt the feasibility of that start date nor the income it may generate.
However, the implications of this computing revolution extend far beyond the realms of cybersecurity and business predictions. Quantum computing’s potential to unravel complexity opens doors to understanding phenomena that were once deemed inscrutable. Recent technological advancements hold the promise of transforming industries, fostering innovation, and shaping a future where the once “too complex” becomes the new frontier of exploration. This hope stems from the belief that what can be achieved beyond 2035 will make that $850 billion income seem too simple for the complex feats quantum computing is purportedly capable of achieving.