In finance, model accuracy is crucial. We’ve explored quantitative and qualitative tests, but what happens when historical data falls short? That’s where alternative validation methods come into play, ensuring models remain fit for purpose. Read on to see the usual backtesting techniques used in financial forecasting.
Traditional trade stats fall short in today’s global economy. Let’s dive into Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and why it’s vital for a nuanced view of trade dynamics!
Dive into the intricate relationship between price movements and the macroeconomy through the final part of our forecasting series. Unravel how energy price shocks, oil policy changes, and more impact currency values by extending the methodology written in the previous articles.
We’ve looked into the general idea behind forecasting, on this last part of the FX Forecasting discussion we’ll look into high level step by step on getting the right numbers out of raw FX data.
Using the GARCH family of models as an example we go through the statistical tests and analysis required to pinpoint the right type of model to use based on your data’s characteristics.
The US Dollar is poised to keep getting stronger in the coming months and it may be a good signal to bet on its continued dominance in the FX market. However, before getting into FX trading it would be good to relearn some statistics and understand the US Dollar further.